***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 18.7 19.1 18.6 1.8 80.3 74.1 17.3 18.0 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 18.8 19.5 18.4 1.8 80.6 74.2 17.3 17.7 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.9 19.7 18.7 1.7 79.9 72.6 17.4 17.9 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.7 16.0 1.7 78.4 72.7 10.1 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 19.5 20.1 17.0 1.7 78.3 72.1 17.6 18.3 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 18.3 18.6 14.9 1.5 75.9 70.0 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 18.6 19.6 18.4 1.8 81.2 74.8 17.1 17.4 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.1 15.2 1.5 77.0 69.7 5.1 6.1 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 19.0 19.8 17.6 1.7 78.6 72.5 17.3 17.8 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.5 16.1 1.6 77.7 70.5 17.3 18.0 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 19.4 20.5 17.1 1.7 78.8 72.2 17.4 18.0 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 18.3 18.9 16.2 1.6 78.6 71.7 16.6 17.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 19.7 20.3 16.1 1.6 77.9 71.2 17.4 18.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 19.0 19.1 17.2 1.5 76.6 69.9 17.2 17.8 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 19.2 19.8 17.5 1.8 80.9 74.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 19.9 20.5 16.5 1.7 78.3 72.0 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 18.0 18.5 18.1 1.7 79.8 73.3 16.6 17.2 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 18.9 18.7 15.5 1.5 76.0 69.1 16.9 17.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 18.6 19.3 18.5 1.7 80.5 73.7 17.0 17.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.6 13.0 1.3 75.1 67.5 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.6 18.3 1.6 78.8 71.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 18.6 18.9 18.0 1.6 78.7 71.9 17.3 17.9 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.8 18.6 1.7 80.4 73.2 17.4 17.7 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 18.9 19.1 17.2 1.5 76.8 70.1 16.9 17.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 18.7 19.1 17.1 1.7 78.9 72.8 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 18.6 19.4 15.5 1.9 81.2 75.4 16.6 17.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 18.5 19.0 17.9 1.7 79.6 73.8 17.5 17.7 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 19.2 19.7 16.6 1.7 78.7 72.5 17.6 18.2 19.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.3 14.6 1.4 75.3 68.1 11.7 12.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 18.6 19.3 18.5 1.8 80.7 74.3 17.1 17.7 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------