***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 21.8 22.2 20.4 2.2 78.8 70.2 18.9 21.0 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 22.3 23.4 20.2 2.1 78.8 69.2 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 21.9 22.6 20.6 2.1 76.1 69.2 19.0 20.5 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 14.9 15.7 18.1 2.0 77.1 69.3 11.7 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 22.0 23.0 18.8 2.2 76.8 69.6 19.4 20.3 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 20.3 20.8 16.6 1.9 71.9 66.8 17.8 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 21.6 22.6 20.2 2.2 79.8 69.8 18.3 20.2 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 9.3 10.1 17.2 2.0 73.9 67.2 7.3 8.2 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 21.3 22.1 19.2 2.2 76.4 69.5 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 21.1 21.6 18.0 2.1 74.9 68.1 19.1 19.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 21.7 22.5 18.7 2.2 76.7 69.0 19.4 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 20.6 21.4 18.2 2.2 76.0 68.4 18.4 19.4 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 21.9 22.2 17.5 2.2 76.0 68.6 19.2 20.6 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 22.1 22.0 18.8 1.9 70.1 65.9 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 21.6 22.3 18.8 2.0 77.7 70.1 18.8 20.0 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 22.0 22.5 18.2 2.2 77.0 68.9 19.8 20.6 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 21.5 22.4 19.9 2.0 78.7 68.1 18.0 20.0 21.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 20.8 21.1 17.6 2.1 72.5 67.0 18.5 19.6 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 21.9 22.7 20.3 2.1 76.7 68.8 19.0 20.2 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.4 14.8 1.9 71.3 66.0 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 21.6 22.3 19.9 2.1 75.6 69.2 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 22.0 22.8 19.7 1.9 75.3 66.8 19.3 20.5 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 22.1 22.7 20.3 2.1 73.5 68.2 19.1 20.7 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 21.6 21.7 18.9 2.1 72.0 67.3 18.7 20.1 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 21.8 22.5 18.7 2.1 78.8 69.8 19.0 20.5 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 21.4 22.4 17.8 2.6 81.8 72.9 18.4 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 21.6 22.7 19.6 2.2 79.3 70.3 18.3 20.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 21.8 22.7 18.3 2.0 76.5 68.8 18.9 19.8 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 16.2 16.1 16.6 2.0 71.9 66.4 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 21.8 22.9 20.3 2.2 79.4 69.8 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------