***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 19.4 19.0 19.1 1.4 63.6 62.0 17.5 18.3 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 20.2 19.6 18.9 1.4 66.3 62.3 16.5 18.7 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 20.0 19.4 19.3 1.4 63.3 61.5 16.8 18.7 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 12.0 16.9 1.4 65.1 62.2 9.3 10.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.9 19.1 17.6 1.4 63.7 61.7 16.8 18.4 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.6 15.8 1.6 65.6 62.2 15.6 16.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 19.5 19.1 18.9 1.5 66.7 62.8 16.6 18.2 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.1 16.0 1.4 63.8 61.1 3.9 5.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.6 17.9 1.4 64.1 61.6 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.8 16.8 1.4 64.2 61.3 16.6 18.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.6 17.5 1.5 65.2 62.1 16.9 17.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.8 17.1 1.5 65.0 62.0 15.4 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.3 19.1 16.6 1.7 65.8 63.0 16.6 17.7 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 16.7 19.7 17.6 1.2 61.7 60.0 16.8 18.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.8 17.7 1.5 68.1 63.4 16.3 17.9 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.9 19.4 17.2 1.6 66.7 62.9 16.7 18.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 19.4 19.2 18.7 1.4 67.3 62.4 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.3 16.4 1.4 63.9 60.7 16.5 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 19.9 19.0 19.0 1.4 65.5 61.9 16.4 18.8 19.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.5 13.8 1.3 63.9 60.8 10.6 11.9 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.6 19.1 18.7 1.3 62.8 61.0 16.7 18.1 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 20.1 19.5 18.5 1.2 64.9 60.8 16.7 18.6 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 20.2 19.6 19.0 1.3 64.6 61.6 16.7 18.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.5 19.2 17.7 1.3 63.1 60.6 16.5 18.1 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.4 17.5 1.4 63.0 61.9 16.7 18.1 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 18.6 19.1 16.8 2.2 71.9 66.7 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 19.4 19.3 18.4 1.5 63.5 62.0 16.7 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.2 19.2 17.1 1.4 66.2 62.3 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.2 15.5 1.3 62.5 60.3 10.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 19.7 19.2 19.0 1.5 65.7 62.3 16.5 18.6 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------