***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 17.8 18.1 16.3 1.2 62.1 61.1 16.3 17.7 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 17.9 18.1 16.4 1.3 61.4 60.6 16.9 17.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 18.2 18.2 16.1 0.8 55.6 55.7 16.7 18.1 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 11.5 11.6 13.0 0.9 59.3 59.1 9.2 11.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 18.9 19.0 14.2 0.5 54.4 54.1 17.0 18.8 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 17.5 17.1 11.6 -0.1 47.5 48.2 15.3 17.3 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 17.7 17.9 16.3 1.3 63.2 61.4 16.6 17.6 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 6.2 5.7 11.9 0.0 45.8 47.4 4.2 6.1 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 18.3 18.3 15.2 0.6 54.3 53.9 16.3 18.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 18.6 18.3 13.0 0.1 46.7 48.4 16.7 18.4 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 18.5 18.5 14.4 0.4 51.2 51.6 16.6 18.3 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 17.8 17.5 13.0 0.3 49.4 50.3 15.6 17.5 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 18.4 17.9 13.5 0.0 47.0 47.5 16.6 18.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 18.2 18.0 15.0 0.4 48.4 50.0 16.7 18.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 17.8 19.1 15.7 1.3 65.7 64.4 16.7 17.5 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 18.8 18.7 13.6 0.3 50.3 50.7 17.1 18.6 19.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 16.9 17.2 16.0 1.3 62.3 60.5 16.0 16.8 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 18.1 17.8 12.1 -0.1 43.8 46.0 16.2 17.8 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 17.9 17.9 16.4 1.2 59.1 59.0 16.4 17.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 11.9 9.9 -0.3 41.8 44.5 11.0 12.2 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 18.4 18.4 15.9 0.6 54.4 54.0 16.8 18.3 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 17.5 18.2 16.1 1.2 59.0 59.0 16.2 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 17.9 18.0 16.3 1.0 56.9 57.0 16.6 17.8 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 18.1 17.9 14.6 0.2 47.0 48.7 16.6 18.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 18.3 18.5 15.0 0.9 59.7 58.2 16.6 18.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 17.6 17.6 11.9 0.2 52.0 50.1 15.6 17.3 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 18.1 18.5 15.7 1.1 61.1 59.8 17.1 18.1 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 18.5 19.4 13.9 0.8 58.9 58.5 16.9 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.0 11.5 -0.2 42.5 44.6 11.2 12.4 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 17.6 18.1 16.4 1.2 61.3 60.5 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------