***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.0 8.2 1.3 77.0 71.9 6.1 7.0 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.6 8.0 1.2 77.7 72.3 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 9.2 9.5 8.3 1.2 77.4 72.7 8.0 8.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 3.7 4.2 5.6 1.3 77.6 73.1 2.5 2.8 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.5 6.0 1.2 78.7 73.4 4.8 5.2 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.7 3.7 1.3 77.1 73.9 3.7 4.0 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 7.6 8.2 8.0 1.2 77.7 72.3 5.9 6.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -0.3 0.0 3.6 1.2 77.2 73.3 -1.6 -0.9 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 6.9 7.4 6.2 1.3 80.7 75.4 5.6 6.2 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 6.8 7.2 4.5 1.2 77.5 73.4 5.6 5.9 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 6.7 7.2 5.3 1.3 79.8 75.2 5.5 5.8 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.6 4.4 1.2 78.2 73.2 3.7 4.5 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.9 4.2 1.1 76.4 72.0 4.6 5.3 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 7.4 7.8 6.1 1.2 78.9 73.4 6.2 6.6 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.8 6.8 1.3 80.1 74.9 6.3 6.6 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.9 4.9 1.2 78.5 73.8 5.9 6.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.8 7.8 1.2 77.9 72.2 6.3 6.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.7 4.8 3.9 1.2 76.9 72.3 3.5 4.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.8 8.0 1.3 78.4 73.1 5.8 6.2 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.2 74.7 71.5 1.0 1.2 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 6.9 7.3 7.5 1.2 77.6 73.0 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.1 7.7 1.2 78.4 72.7 5.6 6.0 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 6.8 7.3 7.8 1.3 80.5 74.8 5.4 6.0 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.0 5.9 1.2 77.8 73.2 5.5 5.9 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.4 7.1 1.2 77.2 71.6 5.6 6.6 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.4 3.9 1.3 80.2 74.4 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.4 7.7 1.2 75.6 70.8 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 5.7 6.2 5.9 1.2 78.0 73.3 4.5 4.7 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 4.0 4.5 3.2 1.2 77.0 72.0 2.6 3.1 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.8 8.3 8.1 1.2 78.1 72.5 5.8 6.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------