***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.6 8.9 1.2 65.6 61.0 6.4 7.1 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 7.9 7.0 8.5 1.1 63.2 61.1 5.7 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.9 8.8 1.1 65.4 61.6 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.1 3.8 6.3 1.4 69.1 64.5 1.7 2.6 3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.5 6.4 1.2 65.6 63.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.4 4.6 1.5 74.4 66.8 4.1 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.3 8.5 1.0 63.5 60.8 6.3 6.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.7 0.0 4.2 1.2 67.8 63.3 -2.0 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.6 6.6 1.2 67.1 62.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.1 5.1 1.2 67.0 62.6 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.1 5.6 1.3 68.3 64.5 4.9 6.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.6 4.9 1.3 69.7 64.6 3.6 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.7 4.7 1.3 69.5 64.8 4.8 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.7 7.3 6.5 1.1 67.2 61.5 5.9 6.7 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.9 8.2 7.5 1.4 73.9 66.5 5.7 6.8 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.8 8.0 5.3 1.4 70.1 65.5 5.7 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.4 8.3 1.0 63.1 60.6 5.9 6.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.1 4.3 1.1 67.7 62.2 3.5 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.1 8.5 1.1 64.8 61.5 5.9 6.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.2 66.4 63.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.1 8.0 1.2 64.7 61.8 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.8 8.1 1.0 64.5 60.7 5.2 5.9 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.0 8.3 1.2 67.3 62.1 5.5 6.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.3 6.2 1.1 67.4 62.0 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 7.6 1.3 64.6 62.2 5.7 6.9 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.4 7.1 4.6 1.6 76.8 68.0 4.2 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.0 8.3 1.2 65.7 61.4 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.4 6.6 1.4 71.2 65.4 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.5 4.1 3.7 1.1 66.6 62.0 2.5 3.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 7.7 7.2 8.6 1.1 63.9 61.0 6.2 6.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------