***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 7.9 7.6 7.7 1.4 71.1 65.6 4.8 6.3 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.0 7.4 1.4 70.3 65.2 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.0 7.7 1.3 71.6 65.0 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 3.6 3.1 5.0 1.3 70.7 64.2 0.7 2.0 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 6.7 6.5 5.5 1.4 70.9 65.2 3.1 5.9 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.6 3.0 1.2 65.3 63.3 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.1 7.2 7.4 1.4 70.9 65.4 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -0.2 -0.3 2.8 1.3 65.5 64.5 -2.5 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 6.8 6.8 5.5 1.3 70.3 65.5 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.1 3.8 1.2 66.2 64.5 4.5 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 6.9 6.9 4.7 1.2 69.7 65.2 4.3 6.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.6 3.8 1.3 66.7 64.6 3.3 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.7 3.8 1.2 65.8 64.0 4.2 5.6 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.2 5.5 1.4 72.1 66.2 5.0 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.3 6.9 6.1 1.2 70.0 63.8 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.7 4.3 1.3 68.5 64.5 5.0 6.8 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.1 7.2 1.4 69.5 64.8 5.5 6.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 4.9 4.6 3.3 1.3 66.7 64.4 2.7 3.6 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.8 6.9 7.4 1.4 71.4 65.7 4.7 6.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.4 66.3 65.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.3 6.9 1.3 71.7 64.8 4.0 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.4 7.2 1.4 70.2 65.5 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 6.8 7.1 7.2 1.5 73.1 66.8 4.3 5.7 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.4 6.6 5.3 1.2 69.0 64.4 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 7.4 7.3 6.7 1.4 70.3 64.6 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.2 5.9 3.4 1.5 68.0 65.5 4.4 5.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 8.1 8.5 7.3 1.5 70.5 65.2 4.0 6.3 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 6.0 5.7 5.3 1.3 70.0 63.9 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 3.7 3.5 2.5 1.3 65.6 64.3 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.2 7.6 1.4 70.8 65.3 4.8 6.4 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------