***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.5 6.5 1.1 66.9 65.5 4.6 6.1 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 5.8 6.3 6.4 1.2 66.0 66.4 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.0 6.8 1.3 69.6 67.8 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 2.5 2.8 3.9 1.1 66.3 64.1 1.2 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 5.4 5.3 4.9 1.1 66.6 65.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 3.5 4.0 2.0 1.0 63.1 63.2 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 6.6 6.8 6.3 1.2 67.0 66.1 5.3 5.7 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 47 53 100 -0.7 -1.1 2.3 1.1 66.4 64.7 -2.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.9 5.2 1.5 72.6 71.6 4.6 5.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 6.2 6.2 3.4 1.3 68.1 66.8 4.4 5.8 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.2 4.5 1.3 68.6 67.6 4.3 5.4 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 3.9 4.4 3.1 0.9 63.0 61.5 2.8 3.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 4.8 5.1 2.9 0.7 57.1 57.2 3.9 4.8 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 6.8 6.7 4.9 1.3 68.0 68.8 5.0 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 7.0 7.1 5.2 1.2 67.4 68.0 4.9 6.3 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 5.9 6.3 3.7 1.0 62.7 62.1 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 6.0 6.5 6.2 1.2 66.4 66.1 5.1 5.8 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 3.6 3.8 2.9 1.3 67.6 66.5 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 5.9 6.4 6.4 1.3 67.4 67.5 4.7 5.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 62.6 62.1 -0.3 0.4 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.5 6.2 1.2 69.2 67.7 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 5.3 6.1 6.4 1.3 66.5 66.7 4.4 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.1 6.4 1.4 70.6 70.1 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 6.4 6.4 5.0 1.3 68.4 68.6 4.0 5.5 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 5.7 6.1 5.6 0.9 64.7 62.4 4.5 5.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 4.6 4.8 2.2 0.7 56.3 57.5 3.6 4.5 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 6.6 7.2 5.9 0.8 61.6 60.9 5.2 6.4 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 4.0 4.4 4.3 1.1 65.1 64.4 2.8 3.8 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 2.7 3.6 2.1 1.3 67.6 66.2 2.2 2.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.8 6.6 1.2 68.1 67.1 5.5 6.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------