***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 37.8 43.5 55.5 91.7 47.1 46.3 35.4 48.6 64.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 27.0 40.3 50.4 92.9 49.3 45.8 31.0 40.4 48.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 58.0 55.0 56.2 97.0 52.4 48.7 38.7 54.2 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 52.3 67.0 62.6 92.3 48.9 46.3 58.1 67.1 77.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 41.6 50.2 60.2 91.7 48.2 46.0 41.9 53.3 69.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 52.6 42.8 64.7 89.1 41.3 42.7 36.5 46.9 63.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 24.6 33.1 49.6 91.5 47.1 45.4 25.0 36.2 44.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 85.4 75.4 66.1 91.1 47.0 44.4 65.3 77.2 94.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 54.1 51.6 63.5 95.6 52.4 48.2 39.0 50.1 59.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 64.9 59.9 69.5 93.3 50.6 46.1 42.2 59.9 67.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 55.4 49.4 60.2 91.6 48.3 45.8 42.4 49.6 63.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 40.5 50.5 60.5 92.6 47.9 46.1 35.4 51.7 61.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 55.7 48.5 66.7 91.4 45.5 44.7 43.4 50.8 60.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 63.7 61.5 71.2 95.0 52.7 47.5 52.6 60.9 66.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 36.7 46.4 59.6 96.1 51.7 49.3 39.7 46.1 55.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 58.2 53.8 61.8 90.9 45.9 45.1 47.3 54.9 65.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 29.9 37.6 49.3 92.7 49.6 45.3 34.2 37.9 43.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 56.3 52.1 74.0 93.8 50.8 45.8 44.4 51.9 63.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 30.4 41.0 51.8 93.8 49.8 46.4 32.3 41.2 52.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 55.8 43.9 74.4 88.2 43.0 41.4 39.9 50.3 63.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 49.1 45.4 59.1 95.0 52.1 47.8 39.2 44.2 54.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 30.7 43.6 51.5 92.4 49.2 45.8 37.0 43.8 49.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 32.6 43.4 54.6 94.5 51.0 47.0 36.8 42.7 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 59.5 56.7 67.6 96.7 54.1 48.0 47.2 55.7 68.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 40.3 55.4 61.3 88.5 45.0 44.5 40.9 56.9 64.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 36.2 45.4 60.9 90.3 47.3 44.4 37.6 46.5 51.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 34.9 46.0 58.6 89.9 45.2 45.2 40.4 49.6 58.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 36.6 49.5 61.6 94.4 50.8 48.0 39.4 48.8 62.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 75.3 68.7 74.8 92.6 48.4 45.0 61.3 69.1 88.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 28.2 37.8 51.2 92.8 49.0 45.9 27.1 37.8 52.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------