***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.7 16.5 98.5 62.1 51.9 5.3 6.9 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.6 13.7 91.8 57.5 46.7 2.0 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.4 14.5 16.2 104.7 64.7 53.4 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.1 14.3 19.1 107.2 63.3 53.5 4.4 12.0 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.6 14.4 19.1 110.4 65.4 55.7 5.8 8.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.8 21.1 107.9 60.8 51.7 2.9 7.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.2 6.7 14.3 95.7 58.7 48.2 3.0 5.8 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.5 22.1 19.8 106.8 64.5 53.8 11.7 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.5 15.9 19.4 110.1 66.8 55.9 5.4 9.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 16.2 21.1 107.2 64.0 54.3 6.0 9.0 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.4 18.8 111.6 66.5 55.1 3.4 6.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.5 18.5 109.7 65.1 53.7 4.1 7.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.3 15.0 20.9 107.2 61.4 52.7 2.3 9.3 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 9.9 20.1 100.2 60.1 50.9 6.9 9.3 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.9 12.2 18.1 108.3 66.7 52.5 1.8 5.3 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.1 19.9 110.0 63.1 53.5 3.8 7.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.8 13.2 89.7 56.0 46.0 3.0 6.2 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 15.2 22.1 105.7 61.0 53.6 5.3 11.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 6.1 14.0 92.8 57.3 47.3 3.9 5.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 10.9 21.5 100.0 59.7 51.9 6.7 8.9 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.8 13.8 17.6 107.4 67.4 55.1 4.7 9.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.9 13.6 88.6 56.4 46.1 3.3 5.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.1 15.0 97.4 59.0 49.0 4.5 7.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 13.3 19.6 107.5 63.0 54.1 5.7 8.3 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.0 18.7 101.2 61.2 53.6 3.3 7.2 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 10.7 18.4 104.8 61.3 50.2 3.1 5.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 13.4 17.5 98.2 60.0 52.3 3.0 8.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.7 14.9 19.2 109.3 64.5 52.9 1.8 5.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 18.9 22.0 105.0 61.4 53.2 7.3 11.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.0 14.3 93.7 59.3 48.4 2.7 6.5 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------