***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.2 13.8 15.9 100.9 61.3 49.9 5.3 8.8 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.5 13.2 92.4 56.1 47.7 5.2 8.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.2 19.0 15.6 103.7 62.1 51.4 5.6 9.4 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.3 17.1 99.0 60.5 49.4 11.9 15.9 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.2 15.2 16.6 98.4 59.4 49.4 7.3 12.6 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.4 19.3 103.8 59.6 49.8 7.9 10.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.1 13.2 92.6 56.1 47.2 4.4 6.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 17.6 26.2 18.3 100.8 60.4 49.7 18.4 24.0 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 21.2 17.8 101.5 60.9 50.9 6.9 14.4 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.5 19.5 101.2 59.3 50.5 9.8 16.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.4 14.4 15.8 96.9 57.1 48.6 9.2 12.4 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.8 18.2 16.3 101.1 62.3 49.4 9.4 14.2 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 19.4 20.6 18.8 104.7 62.6 50.9 11.5 17.4 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.2 24.7 19.6 103.3 62.1 53.4 7.6 14.6 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.8 14.8 15.7 96.7 60.8 48.8 6.7 11.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.9 17.0 100.1 60.0 49.6 10.2 13.9 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.4 11.9 85.5 53.8 45.7 3.4 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.9 21.0 103.1 59.8 51.9 9.5 15.5 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.4 13.9 95.3 58.2 48.9 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.6 21.9 104.6 60.9 52.2 8.6 14.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.9 16.7 103.3 63.1 51.5 6.3 15.3 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.1 12.7 86.5 54.8 45.5 3.1 8.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.1 15.0 99.6 61.4 51.2 3.8 9.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.2 21.0 18.6 102.7 60.4 52.0 10.1 17.9 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.3 17.5 98.0 60.9 48.7 6.5 11.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.9 13.8 17.2 106.6 62.6 51.5 5.7 11.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.5 12.6 16.8 100.1 60.3 49.5 5.1 7.4 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.4 14.5 16.8 99.8 61.9 49.7 6.1 9.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.4 22.0 21.3 103.9 60.1 52.1 14.4 20.1 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.1 14.1 97.3 57.7 48.8 3.7 9.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------