***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.3 13.1 14.1 96.6 55.4 48.4 5.8 12.2 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.7 13.5 106.3 61.7 52.9 4.1 9.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.9 16.0 14.6 102.5 57.2 49.2 7.3 10.9 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.6 22.3 17.1 107.2 64.6 51.4 14.7 19.0 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.6 16.4 15.2 97.6 56.7 47.3 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.5 17.1 103.5 60.7 51.7 7.2 14.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.4 12.4 12.6 97.1 57.3 50.4 4.2 8.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 25.6 27.4 17.9 109.5 60.6 53.4 20.2 24.0 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.7 16.3 17.0 109.4 60.1 51.0 7.9 15.5 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.0 24.4 18.7 112.3 61.7 52.4 12.8 14.7 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.2 17.7 16.5 102.9 57.6 49.5 9.5 16.3 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.8 17.8 16.7 110.8 62.0 54.9 7.4 13.4 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.2 22.3 18.1 107.9 61.9 54.1 11.0 15.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.3 22.1 19.8 109.9 62.9 52.2 12.8 19.4 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 20.0 17.9 122.5 69.3 56.7 4.5 14.9 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.5 16.7 103.9 59.4 51.5 7.9 14.6 20.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.7 13.3 106.4 62.8 52.8 4.9 7.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 18.2 20.6 113.1 59.6 53.2 11.6 14.9 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.7 13.9 107.1 60.6 52.3 7.7 11.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.4 20.9 105.8 57.8 51.3 7.4 14.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.1 16.3 108.0 59.7 51.6 8.1 13.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.9 14.6 14.5 108.9 64.0 52.8 3.8 10.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.6 16.7 15.1 107.4 59.1 50.6 9.4 13.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.9 18.5 108.6 58.8 50.5 11.7 15.0 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 9.1 16.9 15.1 89.3 54.2 45.2 10.0 16.1 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.8 16.9 106.2 61.5 54.5 10.0 13.1 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.0 15.6 14.7 92.1 53.9 46.6 8.8 13.8 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 21.8 17.1 114.8 67.2 54.0 7.0 11.9 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.3 25.3 21.1 108.0 59.1 52.2 16.7 20.6 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.4 13.3 100.7 58.5 50.3 5.8 10.5 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------