***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.4 3.3 9.1 67.3 42.8 38.4 2.1 5.4 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.3 9.9 80.9 51.3 41.9 1.9 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.3 9.7 74.6 46.0 39.6 1.9 7.1 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.7 9.3 55.5 40.0 33.5 5.8 8.4 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.8 9.3 58.5 38.6 34.5 3.1 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 1.7 1.5 7.2 40.0 27.8 25.7 2.3 4.9 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.6 9.6 79.2 51.1 41.8 0.9 4.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 4.2 5.5 10.1 52.0 34.7 29.3 4.9 12.9 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.4 9.3 59.2 37.3 34.4 3.3 5.0 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 2.0 3.2 10.2 54.7 34.8 31.3 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.8 4.2 9.0 55.2 37.3 32.8 2.7 5.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 1.1 2.0 9.0 52.2 35.0 30.2 1.7 4.2 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.9 2.5 8.8 47.1 33.5 30.1 2.5 5.9 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 3.4 5.7 11.7 65.3 41.8 34.8 4.0 7.8 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.6 3.1 7.9 54.5 43.6 34.8 1.5 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.6 3.2 8.2 48.9 35.1 30.9 2.8 5.2 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 1.7 5.4 10.9 90.6 56.1 44.3 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 1.3 2.5 10.2 53.7 33.0 29.8 2.5 4.4 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.2 9.9 79.4 49.0 41.0 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 2.0 3.0 10.2 46.7 29.8 26.7 3.3 6.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.1 1.4 8.5 58.6 39.2 34.8 1.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.9 5.7 10.6 86.5 55.9 44.5 2.6 4.5 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.8 9.6 71.7 42.8 38.6 2.7 6.1 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.0 10.8 65.9 40.3 34.9 2.4 5.3 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.2 10.0 62.6 41.6 37.7 3.4 6.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.7 1.7 8.4 47.1 32.9 29.4 1.7 4.6 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.1 9.5 65.7 42.7 38.9 1.4 5.9 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.2 3.3 8.6 53.9 40.2 32.8 1.5 3.8 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 3.1 6.3 10.5 53.4 34.2 29.1 6.3 7.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.4 9.5 77.9 50.2 41.5 1.9 4.4 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------