***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 18.0 18.1 17.4 1.0 62.9 62.7 17.2 17.8 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 17.9 17.9 17.0 0.8 58.1 59.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.9 18.1 17.6 1.0 61.0 61.9 17.3 17.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 10.8 11.5 14.9 1.0 61.9 61.8 9.7 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 18.4 18.5 15.9 0.9 60.8 61.0 17.5 18.0 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 17.2 17.6 14.1 1.1 65.7 63.5 16.1 16.9 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 17.6 17.6 17.0 0.8 60.0 60.3 16.8 17.4 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 6.1 6.4 14.2 1.0 64.8 62.1 5.0 6.0 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.9 16.4 0.9 61.6 61.2 17.0 17.6 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.2 15.1 1.0 63.5 61.9 17.2 17.8 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 18.3 18.4 15.9 0.9 62.4 60.9 17.1 17.9 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 17.3 17.5 15.1 0.9 64.2 61.5 16.3 17.1 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 18.3 18.4 15.1 1.0 65.3 62.0 17.2 18.0 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 17.9 18.0 16.3 0.9 61.1 61.2 17.2 17.5 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 18.0 18.3 16.2 1.0 64.4 63.1 17.2 17.7 18.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 18.5 18.9 15.4 0.9 63.3 61.0 17.6 18.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 17.2 17.4 16.8 0.8 60.0 59.7 16.3 17.0 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.7 17.8 14.6 1.0 62.7 61.7 16.6 17.4 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.7 17.2 0.8 59.1 60.3 16.8 17.3 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 12.4 13.0 12.2 1.0 64.4 61.8 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.1 17.3 1.0 61.3 62.0 17.2 17.8 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 17.8 17.8 16.8 0.8 59.0 59.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 18.0 18.3 17.5 1.0 62.4 62.3 17.2 17.7 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 17.8 17.8 16.3 1.0 61.7 61.7 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.2 16.2 1.1 64.2 63.7 17.5 17.7 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 17.6 17.8 14.3 1.1 68.9 65.1 16.7 17.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 17.8 18.0 16.8 1.1 64.0 63.5 17.3 17.5 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 18.1 18.6 15.4 0.9 62.0 61.4 17.5 17.9 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.6 13.8 0.9 62.5 61.1 11.4 12.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.8 17.2 0.8 59.0 60.2 16.8 17.4 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------