***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.0 20.5 17.8 -0.4 46.3 47.1 18.7 20.6 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.2 19.6 17.4 -0.5 43.8 45.3 18.5 20.0 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.4 18.0 -0.4 45.2 46.6 18.5 20.3 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 10.1 12.3 15.7 -0.3 46.6 47.7 11.2 12.5 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 18.8 19.8 16.2 -0.5 43.8 45.8 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 16.6 18.9 14.4 -0.3 46.2 47.5 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.1 17.4 -0.5 43.8 45.4 18.0 19.8 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.9 14.6 -0.5 44.9 46.2 7.5 8.0 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 18.5 19.5 16.5 -0.5 44.2 45.8 18.4 19.8 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 18.3 19.4 15.3 -0.5 43.6 46.0 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 18.4 20.0 15.9 -0.5 42.9 45.7 19.0 20.3 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 17.7 18.9 15.5 -0.5 44.5 46.2 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 18.3 19.7 14.8 -0.5 44.6 45.6 19.3 19.9 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 18.1 19.9 16.3 -0.6 44.0 45.6 18.4 20.2 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 17.6 19.6 16.6 -0.1 49.3 49.6 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 18.5 20.2 15.5 -0.5 44.3 45.9 19.6 20.3 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 17.6 19.1 17.2 -0.5 45.0 45.3 17.4 19.6 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 17.7 19.1 14.9 -0.6 42.7 45.8 18.5 19.2 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.4 17.6 -0.5 44.6 45.7 17.9 19.8 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 13.0 14.2 12.2 -0.6 44.4 45.4 13.8 14.3 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 18.4 19.5 17.4 -0.4 46.0 46.6 18.9 20.2 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 17.9 19.5 17.2 -0.6 45.2 44.9 18.6 19.8 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 18.1 20.1 17.8 -0.4 44.9 46.6 18.7 20.3 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 18.1 19.2 16.3 -0.5 43.2 45.9 18.4 19.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 18.1 19.8 16.3 -0.3 48.6 47.8 18.3 19.9 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 17.5 19.1 14.7 -0.3 47.5 47.3 18.5 19.3 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 18.2 19.5 17.0 -0.3 47.1 47.2 18.2 20.1 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 17.7 19.3 16.0 -0.3 46.9 47.8 18.6 19.7 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.4 13.9 -0.6 43.0 45.5 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.7 17.5 -0.5 44.1 45.6 18.0 20.1 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------