***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 16.6 17.5 16.4 -0.4 46.0 45.9 16.6 17.5 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.5 16.1 -0.5 43.5 45.2 16.6 18.1 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.3 17.5 16.7 -0.3 46.0 46.4 17.0 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.1 14.4 -0.3 44.1 46.6 9.5 10.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.3 15.0 -0.4 43.0 46.4 16.9 17.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.0 12.9 -0.6 41.9 44.9 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.3 16.1 -0.5 43.5 44.8 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.9 13.4 -0.4 45.1 46.6 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.0 15.3 -0.4 43.5 46.5 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.5 14.1 -0.4 44.4 46.6 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 18.3 17.4 14.7 -0.5 43.1 46.0 16.4 17.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.4 14.3 -0.4 44.6 46.1 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.2 13.5 -0.6 42.2 44.5 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.4 17.6 15.2 -0.3 45.8 46.5 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.1 15.2 -0.2 45.9 46.9 16.5 17.3 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.6 14.2 -0.5 42.5 45.2 17.2 17.8 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.8 16.0 -0.5 43.3 45.1 16.0 17.1 18.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.8 13.7 -0.4 45.9 46.6 15.4 17.2 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.2 16.4 -0.4 44.4 45.9 16.6 17.6 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.3 11.1 -0.3 47.0 47.0 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.0 16.1 -0.4 44.5 46.3 16.4 17.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 18.5 17.6 16.0 -0.4 43.1 45.5 16.5 17.8 19.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.7 17.9 16.6 -0.3 46.0 46.9 16.9 18.1 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.2 15.1 -0.4 45.2 46.4 16.3 17.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 16.3 17.2 14.9 -0.3 46.3 46.2 16.3 17.5 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 15.2 16.9 13.4 -0.4 44.9 46.0 15.7 17.0 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.2 15.7 -0.4 46.3 45.8 16.2 17.6 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.1 14.6 -0.3 43.8 46.1 16.4 17.8 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.7 12.8 -0.4 45.8 46.5 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 16.1 17.2 16.2 -0.4 44.8 45.4 16.7 17.6 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------