***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.8 16.7 1.0 59.6 58.8 14.4 16.6 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.5 16.5 1.0 58.5 58.8 14.5 16.1 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.2 16.7 0.8 57.5 57.2 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.6 13.4 0.2 50.5 51.7 8.0 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.1 14.7 0.4 52.1 53.2 15.6 16.9 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.9 17.2 13.1 0.6 55.2 55.4 14.7 16.3 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.1 16.7 1.2 61.4 60.9 14.6 16.3 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.0 13.3 0.8 55.7 56.4 3.2 5.0 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.8 16.3 15.4 0.5 51.9 53.8 14.9 16.2 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.4 14.1 0.6 52.3 54.7 15.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.9 14.8 0.4 51.6 52.9 15.5 16.9 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.3 14.1 0.7 55.2 55.9 14.7 16.8 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.9 18.2 14.6 0.9 57.4 57.6 16.0 17.4 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.3 15.5 0.8 57.1 56.8 14.5 15.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.8 15.2 0.3 52.3 52.7 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.9 14.5 0.5 53.3 54.3 15.8 17.4 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.4 16.4 1.2 61.7 60.7 13.9 15.3 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.1 13.7 0.8 55.7 56.6 14.3 15.8 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.3 16.6 0.9 58.6 58.5 14.3 15.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.4 11.8 1.4 60.8 60.8 10.2 11.6 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.0 16.3 0.6 55.0 55.3 14.7 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.3 16.7 16.4 1.1 61.7 60.0 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.7 16.7 1.0 59.5 58.7 14.9 15.8 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.4 15.4 0.7 55.2 56.2 14.4 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 16.8 17.2 15.4 0.9 57.4 57.3 15.1 16.4 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 17.2 18.1 13.8 1.3 62.3 61.3 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.2 16.3 1.2 61.2 60.5 15.0 16.5 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.6 14.0 0.1 49.1 50.5 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.6 13.1 1.1 58.6 58.6 9.1 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.9 16.6 1.0 59.3 58.7 14.3 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------