***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 19.8 22.8 18.8 3.8 89.7 86.3 16.0 17.3 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 19.4 20.8 18.1 3.1 84.8 81.8 16.7 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 19.4 22.5 19.1 3.9 88.3 85.1 16.7 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 12.8 15.1 16.0 4.2 89.6 87.6 9.0 10.4 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 19.9 22.9 17.6 4.2 89.4 86.2 17.1 18.6 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 18.0 21.0 16.2 4.7 89.6 87.0 15.3 16.6 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 18.9 20.3 18.0 3.1 84.5 81.9 16.5 17.0 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 6.9 8.6 15.8 4.1 87.6 84.7 3.9 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 19.4 22.3 18.5 4.1 89.2 86.2 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 19.8 21.8 17.1 4.3 88.5 85.6 16.9 18.1 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 19.6 22.5 18.1 4.3 88.5 85.9 16.8 18.1 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 18.5 20.8 16.4 3.9 88.0 84.9 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 19.2 22.0 17.4 4.0 87.8 85.2 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 19.6 22.4 18.3 3.9 87.8 84.2 16.7 18.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 19.9 22.0 18.0 3.8 90.3 87.5 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 19.9 22.6 17.3 4.1 87.9 85.8 17.1 18.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 18.1 19.3 17.5 2.9 82.3 80.0 15.9 16.2 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 19.0 20.9 16.2 4.1 87.1 83.4 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 19.2 21.6 18.4 3.3 86.0 82.7 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 13.3 14.5 13.6 3.6 84.8 80.8 10.8 11.8 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 19.4 22.6 19.2 4.1 89.5 86.1 17.0 18.0 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 19.2 20.0 17.7 2.9 82.6 80.1 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 19.6 21.9 18.8 3.6 88.5 84.4 16.8 17.6 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 19.4 22.3 18.4 4.1 88.3 84.6 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 19.7 22.5 18.0 4.1 91.2 87.3 16.2 17.5 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 18.3 21.7 15.4 3.9 90.7 86.3 15.7 16.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 19.2 22.7 18.3 3.8 90.4 86.1 16.7 17.9 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 20.2 22.5 17.0 4.2 89.7 87.7 16.4 17.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 14.0 14.8 15.2 3.7 83.8 81.3 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 19.4 21.3 18.4 3.3 86.4 83.0 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------