***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 7.5 7.4 7.8 0.9 69.4 64.7 5.9 6.9 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 6.4 6.9 7.3 0.7 63.2 61.6 5.3 6.2 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.5 9.1 7.7 0.8 66.5 63.9 7.8 8.3 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 3.6 3.6 5.1 0.8 66.0 65.2 2.2 2.9 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 5.8 6.2 5.5 0.8 66.4 65.1 4.6 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 4.8 5.3 3.2 0.8 66.4 64.5 3.4 3.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 6.5 7.1 7.4 0.7 64.7 63.5 5.8 6.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -0.8 -0.5 3.1 0.7 64.6 63.2 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.1 6.2 5.4 0.6 61.1 61.2 5.4 6.0 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 6.0 6.5 3.9 0.7 62.8 61.9 5.5 5.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 5.9 6.3 4.7 0.7 63.3 62.8 5.2 5.7 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.2 4.0 0.8 65.6 64.1 3.5 4.4 5.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.4 6.0 3.7 0.6 63.3 61.3 4.4 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.7 6.9 5.3 0.5 61.1 60.3 5.9 6.5 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 6.4 7.1 6.1 0.7 66.9 65.5 6.1 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 6.4 7.2 4.3 0.7 63.3 62.5 5.6 6.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.7 7.1 7.2 0.7 64.0 62.8 6.2 6.5 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 4.5 4.1 3.3 0.7 64.7 63.0 3.4 3.9 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 6.2 6.8 7.2 0.6 63.0 61.3 5.6 6.0 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 63.9 63.1 0.8 1.0 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 6.3 6.6 6.9 0.7 64.9 63.1 5.4 6.2 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.1 6.2 7.0 0.6 61.8 61.4 5.5 5.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.0 6.2 6.9 0.6 62.9 61.1 5.3 5.8 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.3 5.2 0.6 62.8 61.9 5.3 5.8 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 6.8 7.1 6.7 0.9 70.2 65.2 5.5 6.2 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 5.7 6.2 3.4 0.8 69.1 66.3 4.4 5.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 7.5 7.9 7.4 1.0 71.0 66.1 5.7 6.6 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 4.9 5.6 5.3 0.7 63.6 63.7 4.1 4.7 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 3.9 3.8 2.6 0.7 63.2 62.0 2.5 3.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.9 7.2 7.5 0.7 64.3 62.5 5.8 6.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------