***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.0 8.1 -0.5 43.5 44.9 7.8 8.4 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.1 7.7 -0.6 39.1 44.0 6.8 8.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 8.2 9.6 8.1 -0.5 44.4 45.4 9.0 10.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.5 5.6 -0.3 44.6 47.6 3.4 4.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.1 5.6 -0.4 43.3 46.3 5.8 6.4 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.9 3.6 -0.3 43.4 47.1 4.3 5.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.4 7.8 -0.6 39.0 44.4 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -0.6 0.3 3.4 -0.4 40.5 46.1 -0.1 0.7 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.6 6.9 5.9 -0.5 43.5 45.4 6.2 7.2 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.9 7.0 4.3 -0.5 41.2 45.6 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.5 6.4 4.9 -0.4 42.6 46.5 5.6 6.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.9 4.2 -0.4 42.9 46.4 4.5 5.8 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.3 6.1 3.8 -0.3 45.6 46.8 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.4 5.8 -0.4 40.2 45.3 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.2 6.9 -0.1 47.9 49.9 7.4 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.4 7.6 4.5 -0.3 45.1 46.9 6.9 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.7 7.6 -0.6 38.8 44.1 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.0 4.4 3.5 -0.5 40.6 45.5 4.3 5.4 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.5 7.8 -0.6 40.9 44.5 6.9 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 1.2 1.7 1.4 -0.5 39.1 45.4 1.5 2.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.7 6.9 7.3 -0.5 44.5 45.3 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.7 7.0 7.4 -0.6 40.0 44.4 6.9 7.1 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 7.2 7.6 -0.4 42.8 45.7 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.5 5.5 -0.4 40.9 45.9 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.1 7.2 6.8 -0.4 45.8 46.1 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.5 6.2 3.6 -0.2 46.9 47.9 5.7 6.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.2 7.6 -0.5 44.5 45.9 6.6 7.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.0 5.9 -0.2 46.1 48.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 2.9 4.1 3.0 -0.4 40.6 46.0 3.9 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 6.5 7.3 7.9 -0.6 40.6 44.4 7.0 8.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------