***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 5.5 6.9 7.1 -0.3 44.3 45.3 5.9 7.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.3 7.0 -0.2 47.6 46.8 5.3 6.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.0 8.3 7.2 -0.2 45.7 46.9 7.8 8.4 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 1.3 2.1 4.5 -0.3 44.6 44.8 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.7 5.5 4.7 -0.2 45.4 45.6 4.1 5.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 2.8 4.3 2.6 -0.3 42.2 45.2 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 4.8 6.3 6.9 -0.3 46.5 45.7 5.7 6.5 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -2.9 -1.7 2.6 -0.2 45.1 46.7 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.6 6.2 5.0 -0.2 46.5 46.4 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.8 6.2 3.4 -0.2 45.6 46.6 5.4 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 4.7 6.1 4.0 -0.2 47.1 46.1 4.8 6.3 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 4.7 3.3 -0.1 46.4 46.7 3.6 5.0 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.0 5.5 2.9 -0.3 42.8 45.0 4.9 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.4 6.3 4.9 -0.1 47.8 47.0 5.4 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 6.0 6.3 5.6 -0.3 46.1 45.0 5.8 6.9 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 5.1 6.3 3.5 -0.3 45.2 45.3 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.2 6.2 6.8 -0.2 45.8 45.8 5.9 6.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.7 2.8 -0.1 46.7 47.9 3.2 4.2 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.4 7.0 -0.1 48.5 47.4 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.2 0.7 -0.2 45.8 46.7 0.2 1.4 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.7 6.2 6.4 -0.2 45.4 46.3 5.4 6.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.5 6.5 -0.2 47.4 46.0 4.8 5.6 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.9 6.8 -0.1 49.5 47.8 5.4 5.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.6 5.6 4.7 -0.1 47.8 48.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.3 6.1 5.7 -0.3 44.3 45.1 5.6 6.1 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.8 5.1 2.6 -0.2 44.5 45.9 4.4 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.3 6.1 6.5 -0.3 45.0 45.2 5.3 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.8 4.7 -0.3 44.1 44.7 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.2 0.0 47.2 48.4 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 5.3 6.3 7.1 -0.2 47.1 46.5 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------