***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 7.6 8.4 7.9 2.4 84.6 82.4 4.7 5.9 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 6.4 6.4 6.9 1.6 73.5 72.5 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 9.3 9.6 7.6 1.9 78.0 76.5 6.6 8.0 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 3.5 5.0 5.2 2.3 84.9 81.6 1.3 1.9 2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.4 6.0 2.2 79.8 78.8 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 4.4 4.8 2.9 1.8 75.3 74.5 1.9 3.1 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 7.1 7.3 7.3 2.0 77.8 77.7 5.0 5.8 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -0.7 -0.5 2.7 1.4 71.8 70.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 5.3 6.2 5.0 1.1 64.4 65.1 4.3 5.1 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 6.0 6.3 3.5 1.3 69.0 68.0 4.4 5.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.4 4.8 1.5 72.6 70.7 3.7 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.6 4.0 1.6 75.0 72.8 2.5 3.8 4.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 5.4 5.8 3.9 1.5 70.6 70.3 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 6.1 6.9 4.9 1.1 66.2 65.7 4.6 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 7.3 7.7 5.7 1.7 77.3 76.2 4.7 6.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 6.7 6.8 4.5 1.7 74.3 73.2 4.4 5.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 6.8 6.9 7.0 1.9 76.2 76.1 4.9 6.0 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 3.8 4.2 3.3 1.5 74.0 71.0 1.8 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 6.4 6.6 6.6 1.3 69.2 68.6 4.5 5.6 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.6 72.4 70.2 -0.2 0.4 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 6.5 6.8 6.9 1.9 78.7 76.1 4.2 5.6 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.3 6.8 1.6 71.2 71.5 4.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 5.3 5.7 6.0 0.9 62.1 62.5 4.1 5.2 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.6 6.5 4.9 1.2 67.3 66.4 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 6.9 7.4 7.3 2.5 85.7 82.6 4.3 5.1 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 5.4 5.7 3.8 2.1 77.5 77.7 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 7.8 9.3 7.9 2.7 86.5 84.3 5.1 6.5 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 5.4 5.9 5.3 2.0 78.4 76.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 2.8 3.2 2.0 1.1 64.8 63.7 2.1 2.6 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.1 7.2 1.7 74.8 74.4 5.2 5.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------