***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 36.9 49.1 46.0 88.5 46.6 40.3 37.2 51.4 61.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 27.8 32.1 36.9 78.6 37.4 36.2 29.0 40.3 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 40.5 50.9 44.5 86.3 45.4 39.6 40.7 53.9 60.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 47.6 65.5 56.6 95.1 49.7 44.7 57.1 65.6 73.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 39.1 49.6 53.1 91.8 46.6 42.2 43.0 53.0 60.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 36.7 44.8 63.2 97.9 49.2 46.5 38.0 44.9 62.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 24.7 25.4 36.3 77.9 36.0 35.2 25.3 38.3 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 62.9 79.4 63.8 99.9 51.5 45.2 65.2 74.5 91.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 35.1 48.9 53.5 90.5 48.6 41.0 34.1 49.8 59.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 39.4 59.9 62.6 94.6 49.1 42.6 39.2 60.0 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 36.2 47.3 53.5 93.6 48.5 42.3 41.1 48.4 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 35.5 48.7 55.4 97.9 50.6 44.2 35.4 47.5 60.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 38.7 48.4 59.2 94.0 45.2 42.5 41.5 51.8 57.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 47.4 59.5 59.4 88.8 44.3 40.0 50.8 61.2 70.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 34.3 45.0 52.0 94.8 50.3 44.8 37.0 44.8 55.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 33.4 53.7 55.6 94.3 47.2 42.9 46.6 54.8 65.3 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 30.5 34.0 33.6 74.6 34.5 34.4 33.5 39.7 45.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 36.9 51.0 67.6 97.5 49.6 44.3 43.5 51.2 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 29.0 34.6 38.4 79.6 39.3 36.6 32.4 40.8 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 54.2 49.0 76.4 104.8 55.6 48.8 35.3 47.9 58.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 33.7 42.5 49.0 89.3 47.1 41.1 38.8 42.7 51.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 30.3 37.6 35.4 73.5 36.5 34.4 36.7 44.5 50.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 31.2 40.0 42.0 82.4 40.1 37.3 37.0 45.0 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 42.8 50.8 57.2 91.2 46.0 41.2 47.2 55.7 61.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 37.4 50.9 52.4 89.1 44.2 41.0 36.9 53.3 61.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 33.9 43.3 58.7 98.4 48.7 45.8 35.4 45.0 49.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 33.5 44.0 48.3 87.1 44.1 39.8 41.1 46.8 57.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 32.6 46.3 56.3 96.7 51.6 45.4 35.8 44.3 55.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 52.5 69.5 70.1 100.0 51.2 45.6 57.2 69.0 84.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 27.3 32.7 39.9 82.3 40.2 37.6 28.1 38.3 52.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------