***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.1 12.7 14.2 90.1 53.0 46.6 5.8 12.7 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.9 9.9 69.7 47.0 40.3 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.1 12.8 82.0 52.3 43.8 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 13.1 15.8 92.5 57.0 48.2 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.2 15.2 90.5 56.8 46.7 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.8 8.0 16.6 89.3 49.5 45.3 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.5 10.3 73.3 45.4 41.3 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.5 16.7 16.5 94.8 54.8 45.8 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.2 15.5 89.4 56.9 45.2 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.5 17.0 91.1 54.2 43.9 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.3 14.2 91.0 55.5 46.0 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.5 14.0 90.7 53.3 45.9 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.4 15.4 86.6 47.2 44.3 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.5 10.3 16.0 83.2 51.9 43.0 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.9 13.4 82.9 55.9 45.6 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.6 8.4 14.5 87.9 51.7 45.9 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.7 9.2 68.4 43.9 39.2 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 12.5 17.9 91.8 55.0 44.2 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.3 10.1 68.7 47.1 39.8 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.2 20.4 102.9 57.8 48.3 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.7 14.3 88.3 55.4 46.1 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.9 9.7 68.2 45.8 39.3 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.8 11.0 72.2 47.8 40.3 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.5 10.1 15.4 86.0 54.1 43.3 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.9 15.8 91.5 54.8 47.4 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.6 14.7 87.9 51.2 46.0 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.4 15.1 91.8 53.3 46.8 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.5 15.0 88.8 55.5 47.2 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 12.2 18.7 96.7 55.9 45.8 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.6 11.5 77.4 49.4 42.9 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------