***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 7.1 14.3 13.1 92.4 54.2 45.3 7.5 14.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.4 9.1 11.2 88.4 55.0 44.7 6.2 8.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 7.5 18.0 12.8 91.7 57.9 47.2 7.1 13.1 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.5 15.9 15.5 97.6 59.4 50.3 11.9 15.4 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 14.6 94.8 58.3 49.7 7.2 12.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.7 19.5 114.5 65.2 57.2 8.1 11.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.1 10.5 84.5 51.8 41.9 5.0 8.4 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.7 17.2 104.9 61.2 52.3 22.5 25.3 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.7 15.8 14.8 91.9 56.0 48.5 6.9 14.1 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.7 17.2 17.4 99.6 58.8 51.4 10.5 16.5 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.7 14.8 100.1 59.5 50.9 9.8 13.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.8 15.1 102.3 60.9 51.2 9.5 14.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.9 17.7 17.0 102.2 58.5 52.8 8.3 16.8 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.7 19.6 18.1 95.5 58.4 49.8 10.2 17.2 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.3 15.6 103.5 62.7 51.9 5.2 9.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.2 18.0 16.0 102.9 61.0 52.2 10.0 15.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.0 10.2 86.5 53.2 42.8 3.4 8.6 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 17.8 18.9 101.5 59.3 52.8 9.5 17.0 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 9.8 11.7 89.0 55.9 46.0 6.8 9.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.3 19.9 105.0 60.2 53.5 11.4 14.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.0 17.0 13.5 91.7 55.9 48.6 6.1 13.6 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.6 10.9 82.9 50.4 44.5 5.3 8.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.6 12.6 12.7 89.3 57.6 47.2 6.0 11.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 20.1 18.8 16.7 95.7 58.5 50.7 8.4 16.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.8 15.4 14.8 92.8 53.5 46.6 6.4 14.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.3 14.0 16.5 106.2 61.9 54.4 5.8 9.6 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.1 16.2 14.1 92.3 54.3 44.8 6.5 12.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.8 14.5 16.7 106.8 64.5 53.2 4.8 9.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.1 19.2 102.3 58.3 52.5 14.5 20.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.7 11.7 88.7 55.0 44.6 4.4 8.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------