***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 12.9 9.9 84.7 53.5 43.3 5.8 10.6 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.4 10.1 9.0 82.0 54.7 43.6 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.8 10.8 90.9 55.0 45.9 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.7 24.4 13.9 102.1 62.8 51.6 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.1 13.2 97.2 59.9 50.9 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.3 16.9 16.6 111.3 64.5 54.5 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 5.7 8.5 74.9 49.5 41.1 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 22.6 27.6 17.1 116.6 66.4 55.1 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.0 15.9 13.7 100.1 60.6 50.4 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.0 21.3 16.5 111.0 64.4 53.6 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.1 15.8 13.9 100.0 58.9 50.6 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.7 17.2 14.6 111.1 63.9 53.3 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.4 20.0 15.4 107.2 63.4 52.2 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.1 23.4 15.1 97.0 59.3 47.8 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.0 18.1 13.3 106.7 66.4 51.5 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 17.3 16.5 13.8 99.3 57.9 50.1 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.7 7.9 72.9 50.2 40.1 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 17.4 17.7 112.0 64.1 53.3 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.8 14.4 9.7 87.1 56.0 45.2 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 12.7 15.4 20.4 116.9 63.9 56.2 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.5 15.1 12.2 95.2 58.9 47.9 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.4 8.8 78.5 52.8 43.8 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.9 14.1 10.6 89.8 55.0 44.4 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.4 15.8 14.4 98.3 59.7 48.3 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 11.7 85.1 53.8 45.0 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 16.2 17.3 15.3 110.6 62.6 55.0 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 12.6 10.2 78.8 51.6 42.6 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.7 20.9 14.1 107.1 64.6 52.3 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.8 24.9 18.4 111.9 62.6 53.6 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.0 10.1 9.3 83.3 53.0 44.1 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------