***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.2 8.8 85.3 55.2 40.2 1.2 3.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.3 6.8 75.2 50.5 39.4 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.4 8.1 80.3 53.6 41.6 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.5 11.5 88.3 55.5 43.3 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.9 6.1 10.1 83.7 54.2 39.9 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.3 6.0 10.5 74.8 46.1 38.3 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.0 3.6 7.0 80.1 52.7 41.4 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.0 13.0 85.5 54.1 43.2 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 1.5 4.6 9.5 79.1 52.3 39.6 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.9 11.7 78.1 51.0 40.8 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 1.4 4.6 10.7 83.9 56.1 41.3 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.1 7.7 11.8 89.3 57.6 43.5 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.2 6.3 11.4 80.3 50.0 40.0 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.4 10.2 77.8 51.3 43.8 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.5 9.8 87.3 59.5 45.4 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.1 7.0 11.2 87.0 56.3 42.8 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.2 6.3 70.4 50.6 40.0 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.5 13.0 85.6 54.6 44.4 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.4 3.2 6.9 74.3 50.3 39.9 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 8.1 15.8 97.4 60.2 47.7 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.7 9.0 80.7 52.6 40.6 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.5 6.1 62.6 47.9 38.8 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.2 4.5 7.7 79.0 51.7 43.3 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.3 8.0 10.7 84.0 55.5 44.5 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.6 10.0 85.2 53.7 38.8 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.4 12.1 89.9 53.4 43.4 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.6 9.0 82.8 52.3 39.0 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.1 6.8 10.6 84.1 56.7 42.8 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.4 13.9 89.6 55.9 45.9 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.0 3.0 7.4 80.1 52.6 40.3 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------