***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 18.6 17.8 17.5 1.0 62.7 63.5 16.8 17.7 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 18.4 18.8 18.2 1.8 77.3 72.3 16.7 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.0 17.8 1.0 64.5 63.4 17.2 17.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.4 14.0 0.0 49.0 50.4 9.7 10.5 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.0 15.0 -0.1 47.5 49.4 17.4 18.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 17.1 16.3 12.6 -0.5 42.3 45.3 15.9 16.7 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 18.1 18.4 18.0 1.7 76.6 71.8 16.8 17.3 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.5 12.9 -0.5 44.0 45.6 4.8 5.8 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.4 15.7 0.1 49.0 51.3 16.7 17.5 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 18.0 17.5 14.1 -0.2 46.6 48.6 17.0 17.6 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.2 17.8 15.0 -0.1 48.7 50.2 16.9 17.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 17.3 16.9 14.1 -0.2 48.8 49.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 18.4 17.9 14.1 -0.1 48.9 50.1 17.0 17.9 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.3 15.8 0.2 51.9 53.3 17.0 17.3 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.7 15.8 0.5 57.3 57.5 17.0 17.6 18.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.0 14.5 0.0 49.6 51.1 17.2 18.0 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.8 18.4 18.0 1.9 79.5 73.2 16.3 16.8 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.1 13.5 -0.3 46.2 47.5 16.5 17.3 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 18.3 18.5 18.2 1.7 74.5 70.9 16.7 17.0 18.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.4 11.5 10.7 -0.8 42.1 43.2 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.6 16.6 0.2 51.1 53.4 17.1 17.6 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.4 17.8 1.6 72.1 70.0 16.9 17.3 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 18.8 18.3 18.0 1.4 68.8 67.4 17.1 17.4 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.2 15.6 0.2 52.0 52.8 16.8 17.2 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.7 15.5 0.3 53.6 54.3 17.2 17.6 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.3 13.4 0.1 50.9 52.1 16.4 17.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.8 16.6 0.7 59.6 59.6 16.9 17.5 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.2 17.9 14.7 0.2 51.1 52.7 17.2 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 11.7 12.5 -0.5 45.6 45.8 11.1 12.0 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.4 18.0 1.6 73.1 70.4 16.8 17.1 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------