***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 20.4 21.0 19.2 1.1 63.1 59.6 18.5 19.8 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 21.6 21.7 19.6 1.7 70.0 64.0 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 20.3 20.4 19.4 1.1 63.2 58.9 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.2 16.5 0.5 57.2 55.5 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 20.4 19.9 16.8 0.1 51.5 51.6 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 18.6 17.8 14.4 -0.2 45.3 48.3 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 21.3 20.9 19.6 1.6 69.6 63.6 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.5 14.7 -0.4 46.2 47.1 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 20.0 19.5 17.1 0.2 51.7 51.6 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.2 15.7 -0.1 48.7 49.1 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 20.1 19.5 16.5 0.0 49.4 50.5 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 19.3 18.5 15.9 -0.1 47.5 49.1 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 20.1 19.2 15.1 -0.2 45.8 48.5 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 20.4 20.3 17.0 0.1 53.9 51.3 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 20.2 20.4 17.7 1.1 64.7 60.4 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 20.7 20.1 16.0 0.1 49.7 50.6 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 21.1 20.9 19.5 1.6 69.9 63.4 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 18.7 15.2 -0.3 49.6 48.0 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.1 20.4 19.7 1.5 68.3 62.6 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.7 12.0 -0.9 43.4 43.7 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 20.2 20.0 18.2 0.4 55.2 53.7 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 20.3 21.1 19.1 1.3 67.4 60.7 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 20.4 20.8 19.4 1.2 64.0 59.7 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.9 19.2 17.0 0.2 53.2 51.7 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 20.1 19.9 17.2 0.6 58.6 56.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.9 15.1 0.1 51.7 51.0 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 20.0 20.2 18.3 0.9 60.7 57.7 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 20.0 20.2 16.8 0.7 58.2 56.4 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.8 14.0 -0.5 46.6 46.2 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.5 19.6 1.6 69.1 63.0 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------