***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 18.2 18.2 17.9 1.0 64.9 59.8 16.5 18.0 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 18.4 18.4 18.3 1.7 71.6 64.5 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.9 18.4 18.0 0.9 61.4 58.7 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.9 14.8 0.0 51.7 51.8 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.4 15.2 -0.3 47.0 49.4 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 14.7 15.2 12.5 -1.1 41.3 43.4 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 18.3 18.2 18.3 1.6 70.9 64.3 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.4 13.2 -0.8 43.7 46.1 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.4 15.6 -0.3 46.4 50.1 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.4 14.2 -0.6 44.9 47.9 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 15.6 17.3 14.9 -0.4 47.0 49.0 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 14.6 16.4 14.4 -0.5 46.4 48.2 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 15.7 17.2 13.5 -0.7 45.1 47.6 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.0 15.4 -0.3 46.4 49.9 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.4 15.9 0.4 56.3 54.8 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.9 14.4 -0.5 47.9 49.0 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 18.0 18.1 18.3 1.7 71.8 64.9 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.1 13.7 -0.7 44.1 47.3 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 18.3 18.2 18.3 1.4 69.4 62.9 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.9 10.7 -1.2 40.7 44.0 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.7 16.7 0.1 51.7 52.8 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 18.6 18.5 17.9 1.3 68.4 62.0 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.5 17.9 1.0 63.7 59.2 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.7 15.4 -0.3 46.6 50.3 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.6 17.7 15.8 0.3 55.1 54.7 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.8 13.6 -0.3 49.5 49.9 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 18.3 17.8 16.9 0.7 59.6 57.8 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.4 15.1 0.0 51.4 51.7 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.5 12.6 -0.9 42.0 45.8 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 18.3 18.4 18.3 1.5 69.6 63.4 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------