***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 16.4 16.6 17.1 1.3 56.9 60.2 14.3 16.1 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 17.6 17.1 17.8 2.1 68.8 67.1 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.9 16.8 17.2 1.2 58.2 58.7 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.5 13.2 0.1 47.8 49.3 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.9 17.0 14.3 -0.1 46.0 48.4 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.6 15.4 11.8 -0.6 40.8 44.0 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.0 17.7 2.1 68.2 67.0 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 3.9 12.1 -0.6 39.0 44.0 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.2 16.7 15.2 0.1 47.0 49.7 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.6 13.3 -0.3 42.7 46.7 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.0 14.4 -0.2 42.9 47.4 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.1 15.9 13.3 -0.3 41.6 46.4 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.5 13.6 -0.2 43.9 47.1 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.2 15.2 0.2 46.6 51.1 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.4 17.1 15.4 0.5 51.3 53.3 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.4 17.5 13.8 -0.1 44.5 47.6 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.4 17.7 2.3 71.0 68.7 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.6 15.5 12.7 -0.4 42.5 46.1 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 17.5 16.7 17.8 1.9 66.3 65.3 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.2 10.0 -0.8 38.2 43.2 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 17.1 16.5 16.1 0.3 48.1 51.5 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.5 17.4 1.9 66.9 65.2 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.5 17.5 1.5 62.1 61.9 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.4 15.0 0.1 46.1 50.0 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.9 15.2 0.5 50.8 53.7 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.1 16.3 12.7 0.1 48.5 49.6 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.2 16.3 1.0 55.6 58.1 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.2 14.0 0.1 47.7 49.5 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.3 11.8 -0.6 41.2 45.0 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 17.5 17.0 17.7 1.9 66.8 65.1 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------