***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.3 15.8 0.7 55.1 55.6 15.7 17.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 18.5 18.1 16.8 1.7 69.7 65.5 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.5 18.1 16.4 1.1 61.1 59.4 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.4 11.3 -0.6 41.8 42.8 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.1 13.5 -0.1 48.8 48.1 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 16.3 15.9 11.5 0.0 50.6 50.1 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 18.1 17.7 16.6 1.5 67.0 64.3 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 5.2 4.9 11.7 -0.1 48.0 49.0 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.7 17.3 14.8 0.3 51.9 52.1 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 17.7 17.3 13.1 0.2 51.5 51.9 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.2 14.3 0.3 53.2 53.1 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 16.8 16.6 12.9 0.3 52.1 52.8 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.3 14.2 0.7 55.6 57.8 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.4 15.4 0.8 56.2 56.9 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.4 16.8 14.3 0.1 48.2 49.0 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 17.7 17.7 13.8 0.5 54.9 55.2 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.8 17.5 16.6 1.8 70.2 67.2 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 17.3 16.7 12.4 0.1 48.7 50.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 18.3 18.0 17.0 1.8 71.4 66.2 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.6 10.0 -0.2 46.8 47.6 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 17.4 16.9 15.5 0.2 51.1 50.8 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 18.3 18.2 16.8 1.8 70.6 66.6 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.4 18.5 17.1 1.8 71.9 66.9 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.1 15.0 0.6 53.9 55.1 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.5 16.9 13.9 -0.2 45.3 46.1 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.4 12.1 0.4 52.9 53.4 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 17.7 17.4 15.0 0.3 50.9 51.6 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.2 12.8 -0.1 47.4 47.7 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.7 11.8 0.0 48.3 49.9 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 18.1 17.9 16.6 1.4 66.0 63.1 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------