***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.4 8.6 0.1 54.6 52.6 7.7 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.5 8.5 0.3 55.7 53.6 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.7 8.6 0.2 55.0 53.1 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.4 5.5 -0.2 47.1 48.7 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.0 5.5 -0.4 43.6 46.1 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.5 3.4 -0.4 40.5 45.2 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.3 8.6 0.4 55.7 55.0 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.3 3.2 -0.5 39.7 44.2 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.1 5.8 -0.3 45.7 47.0 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.8 4.1 -0.5 42.5 45.3 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.5 6.3 4.7 -0.4 41.5 44.9 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.8 4.0 -0.4 40.9 45.0 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.1 5.5 3.5 -0.6 39.1 43.0 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.1 5.8 -0.4 47.7 46.4 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.2 6.8 0.1 52.7 51.9 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.2 4.2 -0.5 40.3 44.4 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.6 8.3 0.2 55.0 53.2 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.3 3.4 -0.4 42.6 45.9 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.4 8.4 0.2 55.6 53.4 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.2 1.4 1.1 -0.7 37.4 42.8 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.8 7.4 -0.2 48.4 49.1 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.0 8.0 0.1 54.6 52.3 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.9 8.1 0.2 55.0 53.0 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.6 5.6 -0.2 47.9 48.1 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.3 6.9 -0.2 47.3 49.0 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.0 3.3 -0.4 42.1 45.5 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.8 7.9 0.0 51.1 51.4 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.0 5.8 -0.1 48.7 49.3 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 4.3 2.8 -0.4 42.4 45.6 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.3 8.6 0.3 55.6 54.1 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------