***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.2 7.8 0.4 58.4 55.6 6.0 6.9 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 7.6 0.6 59.2 57.5 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.5 7.8 0.4 57.1 55.6 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.5 2.1 4.7 0.1 50.7 52.1 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.3 4.9 4.8 -0.1 50.0 49.9 4.0 4.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.3 2.4 -0.4 43.0 47.3 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 7.7 0.7 60.6 58.6 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.4 44.3 47.5 -2.4 -1.7 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.0 5.0 -0.1 49.5 49.8 4.4 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.9 3.4 -0.3 46.8 48.3 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.8 4.0 -0.2 47.2 48.8 4.3 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.2 3.2 -0.3 44.7 48.0 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.7 4.9 2.6 -0.6 40.4 45.3 4.6 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.2 5.0 -0.1 48.9 49.6 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.6 5.9 0.2 54.6 54.0 5.7 6.5 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.8 5.9 3.4 -0.3 44.7 48.1 5.1 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 7.3 6.4 7.5 0.6 60.3 58.1 5.0 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 4.2 3.7 2.7 -0.3 47.5 47.9 2.6 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 7.6 0.5 58.6 57.1 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.8 0.4 -0.6 42.1 45.8 0.2 1.1 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.4 6.6 0.1 51.9 51.9 4.8 6.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.7 5.8 7.2 0.5 58.7 57.1 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 7.3 0.5 58.0 56.6 4.5 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.2 4.8 -0.1 50.4 50.4 4.2 5.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.3 6.1 0.1 53.0 52.5 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.9 2.4 -0.4 42.6 47.9 3.9 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.7 7.0 0.2 55.4 53.8 4.9 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.2 4.9 0.0 51.5 52.0 3.9 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.3 2.0 -0.4 46.0 47.4 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.3 7.8 0.6 59.3 57.6 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------