***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.0 6.6 0.5 53.5 54.4 4.7 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.7 6.5 0.6 54.7 56.1 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.6 6.6 0.4 52.0 53.7 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 2.1 0.9 3.5 0.0 46.0 48.9 0.3 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.6 4.1 0.0 46.0 48.9 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.0 43.7 48.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.1 6.7 0.8 56.7 58.1 5.1 6.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -2.0 1.5 -0.1 43.5 47.6 -2.5 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.8 4.2 0.1 45.7 49.7 4.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.0 2.4 -0.1 43.8 48.3 4.4 5.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.2 3.4 0.0 46.4 49.5 4.1 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 4.3 3.8 2.4 0.0 44.5 48.2 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.4 4.3 2.1 -0.2 40.7 45.9 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.6 3.9 -0.1 43.1 47.4 5.2 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.3 5.1 0.4 53.7 54.6 4.7 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.4 5.5 2.8 0.0 43.9 48.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.4 6.4 0.7 56.4 56.8 4.9 5.8 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.4 2.9 1.8 -0.2 42.1 46.6 2.7 3.0 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.1 6.5 0.6 54.8 56.5 4.7 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 1.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 40.1 46.1 0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.1 5.5 0.0 46.8 49.7 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.5 6.4 0.7 56.8 57.4 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.6 6.3 0.6 55.6 57.0 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.8 3.9 0.0 44.6 48.4 4.5 5.1 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.8 5.4 0.2 49.4 51.8 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.5 1.7 -0.2 41.7 46.6 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.2 6.0 0.4 51.7 52.9 4.1 6.0 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.7 4.3 3.9 0.1 47.1 49.6 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 1.8 1.0 -0.1 41.8 47.2 1.3 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.3 6.7 0.7 55.8 56.6 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------