***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.2 6.1 0.7 61.0 59.5 4.4 5.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 6.1 5.9 5.9 0.9 61.1 61.6 4.8 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.2 6.1 0.6 58.7 58.5 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.0 1.4 2.3 -0.5 42.5 43.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.7 4.0 0.2 51.0 52.7 2.9 4.7 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 3.5 2.4 0.7 -0.4 43.0 43.8 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.2 6.2 1.1 65.0 64.3 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -1.8 1.6 0.3 51.7 54.1 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.8 4.3 0.6 57.6 58.5 4.1 5.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.6 2.6 0.4 54.0 55.9 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.6 3.7 0.4 54.6 55.8 3.9 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 3.7 3.6 2.5 0.3 51.4 53.8 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.8 4.0 1.8 -0.4 40.4 42.4 2.7 4.5 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 6.0 5.8 3.7 0.2 49.0 52.0 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.6 4.2 0.3 51.3 54.2 4.4 5.5 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 5.8 5.4 2.6 -0.1 45.3 47.2 4.0 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.9 5.7 1.0 62.3 61.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.1 48.6 50.3 1.7 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 6.3 5.9 6.0 0.9 61.8 62.6 4.4 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 53.5 55.5 -0.3 0.3 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 5.5 5.4 5.2 0.3 53.9 54.6 3.9 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.5 6.0 1.0 62.4 63.8 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.4 5.9 1.0 65.3 64.1 4.3 5.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.6 3.9 0.2 50.3 53.1 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.5 5.1 0.4 55.4 55.7 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.1 1.4 -0.2 46.6 45.6 2.7 4.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.9 5.8 0.7 60.4 59.7 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.0 2.7 3.0 -0.2 43.6 46.0 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.2 50.7 52.8 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.4 6.3 0.9 62.9 62.6 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------