***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 64.4 126.5 67.6 65.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 43.6 46.2 55.5 115.8 60.5 59.4 29.0 40.3 48.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 60.8 63.8 64.3 130.1 75.1 68.0 40.7 53.9 60.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 81.5 81.3 75.5 131.0 75.6 69.4 57.1 65.6 73.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 66.9 73.5 75.1 133.3 78.8 71.1 43.0 53.0 60.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 59.8 64.4 85.9 121.9 71.6 66.6 38.0 44.9 62.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 41.6 42.2 54.7 112.9 59.8 57.8 25.3 38.3 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 98.5 107.6 80.0 131.2 76.3 71.9 65.2 74.5 91.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 59.3 62.7 73.7 134.0 77.5 71.4 34.1 49.8 59.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 75.8 81.2 79.5 130.3 76.3 70.7 39.2 60.0 66.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 64.0 70.5 72.3 135.2 77.8 72.3 41.1 48.4 61.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 57.9 63.4 71.6 136.0 79.0 72.9 35.4 47.5 60.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 65.4 69.4 78.5 128.1 74.0 69.7 41.5 51.8 57.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 71.0 71.3 73.8 118.9 73.6 64.2 50.8 61.2 70.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 57.6 62.9 71.9 134.8 76.8 70.2 37.0 44.8 55.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 63.9 66.9 74.5 129.7 74.2 70.0 46.6 54.8 65.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 41.5 40.4 50.3 106.1 54.0 53.8 33.5 39.7 45.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 65.1 67.1 85.0 125.1 74.4 68.5 43.5 51.2 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 44.4 51.8 57.9 119.6 65.8 61.8 32.4 40.8 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 65.0 69.3 96.7 123.8 74.2 68.5 35.3 47.9 58.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 56.5 62.3 68.2 134.1 75.6 70.1 38.8 42.7 51.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 46.6 46.4 51.1 104.2 53.3 53.2 36.7 44.5 50.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 47.2 55.5 62.2 122.6 71.6 64.3 37.0 45.0 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 65.9 68.8 75.5 125.8 75.8 68.2 47.2 55.7 61.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 66.1 65.8 75.4 126.2 69.8 66.7 36.9 53.3 61.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 58.3 61.1 76.5 131.6 74.4 70.6 35.4 45.0 49.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 49.7 57.7 69.8 121.5 66.6 63.9 41.1 46.8 57.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 62.3 67.8 73.7 132.5 76.1 69.8 35.8 44.3 55.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 87.0 89.8 88.3 123.5 74.5 67.7 57.2 69.0 84.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 41.3 51.9 58.6 120.8 65.5 62.3 28.1 38.3 52.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------