***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 84.3 54.5 45.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 7.0 9.6 83.4 56.2 46.2 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.8 11.3 10.8 90.6 54.7 47.2 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 13.0 11.8 82.5 52.8 42.3 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.0 12.5 90.8 56.5 45.8 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.1 15.4 79.1 42.5 41.4 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.8 9.7 83.2 58.1 46.7 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.8 14.4 13.5 85.4 49.6 44.4 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 10.9 12.8 96.6 60.1 48.3 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.7 7.8 14.2 92.2 55.1 47.6 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.5 11.9 89.5 56.3 46.5 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.8 10.8 80.3 46.6 42.0 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.4 5.8 11.9 73.1 37.0 38.9 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 12.7 13.5 88.2 56.1 45.6 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.8 10.4 79.5 55.6 41.8 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.9 11.7 80.0 46.2 42.2 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.3 9.2 79.1 54.1 44.5 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 12.5 15.7 90.4 55.4 46.9 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.0 10.0 85.8 54.8 46.1 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.1 8.8 17.3 85.8 48.3 43.7 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.7 11.5 94.5 60.1 48.0 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.9 8.7 9.2 76.5 49.4 42.5 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.1 11.0 89.9 54.9 46.5 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.3 13.6 91.2 55.0 47.0 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.6 6.8 12.3 81.7 51.7 43.4 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 4.9 10.8 72.8 39.8 38.5 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.9 11.7 81.2 53.9 44.5 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.3 11.2 80.3 54.2 42.3 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 11.5 16.0 87.5 51.8 45.6 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.3 9.9 84.6 55.4 46.2 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------