***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 72.3 50.7 38.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.8 8.9 10.4 75.8 50.5 39.5 6.2 8.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 7.2 15.8 11.5 82.3 54.0 41.4 7.1 13.1 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 9.7 15.4 13.1 80.5 50.0 41.4 11.9 15.4 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.4 12.7 13.3 84.4 51.5 41.8 7.2 12.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 6.6 11.6 16.7 86.3 48.7 42.6 8.1 11.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.4 9.1 10.5 76.2 51.9 39.4 5.0 8.4 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 17.5 25.5 14.8 92.2 55.7 42.9 22.5 25.3 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 7.7 15.8 13.2 86.7 55.7 42.1 6.9 14.1 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 8.1 16.9 14.7 88.8 55.3 42.2 10.5 16.5 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 7.8 14.8 12.8 87.6 53.2 42.4 9.8 13.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 9.7 15.3 12.9 92.6 55.3 43.3 9.5 14.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 9.1 16.7 13.7 82.6 49.4 40.5 8.3 16.8 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 7.9 18.5 14.9 83.4 54.2 40.5 10.2 17.2 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.4 9.7 12.2 78.8 50.1 42.3 5.2 9.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 7.6 15.8 13.2 84.2 48.4 41.0 10.0 15.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.1 10.1 74.9 49.0 39.9 3.4 8.6 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 9.5 17.2 16.3 87.0 52.7 40.7 9.5 17.0 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.6 9.6 10.7 76.4 50.1 39.6 6.8 9.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.1 14.4 18.0 84.5 47.2 39.4 11.4 14.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 8.3 16.1 11.6 81.7 54.4 41.1 6.1 13.6 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.8 9.7 69.1 46.1 37.5 5.3 8.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 5.5 11.6 11.7 79.5 48.8 40.6 6.0 11.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 8.4 18.6 14.7 87.3 56.5 41.5 8.4 16.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.8 12.4 73.3 46.1 38.1 6.4 14.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.5 8.2 13.4 84.2 47.4 41.0 5.8 9.6 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.2 11.4 11.4 70.0 47.1 37.1 6.5 12.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.3 9.5 12.9 82.1 50.6 42.4 4.8 9.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 12.3 21.0 17.1 86.4 51.1 40.4 14.5 20.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.5 10.6 76.3 52.3 39.3 4.4 8.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------