***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 15.9 126.7 67.6 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 13.3 13.7 112.7 64.1 55.5 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.8 18.8 15.7 128.8 70.3 59.0 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 29.1 28.7 17.4 122.0 72.1 61.4 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 24.9 31.7 17.5 130.6 72.3 63.1 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.4 17.3 21.0 116.3 66.5 59.2 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.0 12.8 13.7 109.4 60.4 54.5 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 25.9 29.4 18.6 136.6 76.9 64.9 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 19.0 23.4 17.7 136.8 75.5 64.1 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 22.6 26.6 19.0 136.0 76.0 64.0 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 22.4 24.2 16.5 133.2 74.5 64.0 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 18.4 22.6 16.3 138.7 77.5 65.6 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.1 24.3 18.8 129.0 70.3 62.4 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.0 24.1 18.7 125.7 68.3 58.8 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 20.0 19.7 16.0 118.4 72.3 61.1 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 17.1 20.1 17.5 127.1 70.4 62.6 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 13.1 12.4 100.1 59.7 52.5 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 18.5 20.5 21.3 136.4 73.8 63.8 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 17.1 14.2 118.0 67.3 56.4 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 16.0 17.7 24.2 134.0 73.7 63.5 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.5 17.1 16.3 134.0 73.5 61.4 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 12.4 100.1 60.6 52.7 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.8 22.3 15.3 124.5 68.7 57.6 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.0 20.7 18.8 132.4 70.7 61.4 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 19.9 18.6 124.6 68.9 58.9 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 15.9 21.8 17.6 132.6 73.1 64.2 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.8 18.1 17.6 121.8 66.8 57.7 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 22.5 25.7 16.7 119.8 72.6 61.7 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 28.0 30.3 22.5 136.5 72.8 64.1 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.9 14.6 119.6 65.7 57.2 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------