***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 27.5 241.8 90.7 85.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 16.7 24.0 21.7 207.9 88.2 79.0 1.0 5.3 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 13.1 31.8 26.3 231.6 92.2 83.9 1.4 5.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 15.3 28.9 33.1 260.9 94.4 89.1 4.6 8.4 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 11.5 26.7 31.9 236.4 93.0 87.7 1.9 5.7 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 11.1 24.3 33.0 239.9 94.4 90.1 2.5 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 10.5 22.6 20.7 199.0 86.3 77.8 0.7 2.6 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 17.2 31.5 33.1 213.3 91.5 86.9 4.5 9.7 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 12.3 18.6 29.9 221.2 91.9 85.2 1.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 12.2 20.8 31.7 208.7 91.4 85.5 2.6 4.9 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 12.0 17.3 31.1 235.7 92.8 88.0 1.5 3.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 14.2 21.9 31.6 233.2 92.7 88.1 1.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 12.0 24.8 34.1 246.1 96.0 90.4 2.7 6.3 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 11.4 20.6 26.8 189.7 85.9 78.9 3.8 6.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 10.3 22.4 33.3 295.5 95.3 91.2 1.4 4.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 10.0 20.0 32.0 241.3 94.0 89.3 2.4 5.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 8.5 14.9 18.7 187.0 83.9 74.4 1.2 4.1 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 10.0 16.4 31.8 194.8 89.5 83.5 2.1 4.3 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 11.5 21.7 23.0 214.1 90.4 79.9 1.5 3.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 12.3 17.2 37.3 200.4 89.4 85.4 3.2 4.7 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 13.1 22.5 28.7 234.4 91.7 85.2 0.6 4.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 12.5 19.2 19.8 186.4 83.2 73.9 1.6 4.4 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 11.3 18.7 24.1 210.8 91.0 80.0 1.6 4.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 9.8 25.8 28.4 201.9 90.9 82.0 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 13.0 23.9 32.1 249.4 92.1 88.5 2.7 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 12.7 28.1 34.6 247.2 95.9 90.7 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 12.6 19.5 29.1 236.4 90.5 86.0 1.4 4.1 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 12.1 23.2 32.9 273.8 94.8 90.3 0.7 5.9 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 13.4 23.2 32.8 192.8 88.7 83.4 5.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 10.4 19.9 23.5 219.4 89.5 81.6 0.2 2.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------