***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 -2.7 7.6 17.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 16.5 14.3 13.8 -2.8 5.3 14.9 16.7 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 16.5 14.7 14.1 -2.8 5.5 17.0 17.2 17.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 8.4 7.7 12.6 -2.5 7.8 19.7 9.7 10.5 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 16.8 15.5 12.9 -2.6 8.7 19.7 17.4 18.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 15.3 15.0 11.4 -2.0 16.8 26.0 15.9 16.7 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 16.2 14.8 13.7 -2.8 6.0 14.9 16.8 17.3 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 4.1 3.4 11.6 -2.3 13.5 22.6 4.8 5.8 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 16.0 15.1 13.4 -2.7 7.7 19.3 16.7 17.5 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 16.0 15.1 12.2 -2.6 10.3 20.8 17.0 17.6 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 16.3 15.6 12.7 -2.5 10.9 20.9 16.9 17.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 15.4 14.6 12.4 -2.3 14.5 22.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 16.3 15.7 12.1 -2.2 15.0 23.5 17.0 17.9 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 16.4 13.8 12.8 -3.0 4.6 16.5 17.0 17.3 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 16.2 15.3 13.2 -2.4 9.1 20.1 17.0 17.6 18.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 16.7 16.0 12.5 -2.3 13.3 22.3 17.2 18.0 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 15.8 14.0 13.4 -2.9 5.8 13.6 16.3 16.8 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 15.6 14.6 11.4 -2.7 9.7 20.5 16.5 17.3 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 16.3 13.8 13.9 -2.9 5.0 15.4 16.7 17.0 18.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 10.3 9.6 9.4 -2.3 15.4 22.9 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 16.4 15.4 13.9 -2.7 6.8 18.2 17.1 17.6 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 16.3 14.3 13.5 -3.0 5.4 13.8 16.9 17.3 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 16.5 13.7 13.9 -2.9 4.3 16.0 17.1 17.4 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 16.1 14.1 12.9 -2.8 5.5 18.2 16.8 17.2 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 16.2 15.7 12.9 -2.6 7.6 17.9 17.2 17.6 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 15.7 15.4 11.9 -1.9 17.1 25.2 16.4 17.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 16.4 15.7 13.5 -2.7 7.5 17.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 16.5 15.6 13.0 -2.4 10.3 20.9 17.2 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 10.8 9.1 10.5 -2.6 10.2 20.9 11.1 12.0 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 16.2 14.2 14.0 -2.8 5.5 15.7 16.8 17.1 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------