***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.5 0.6 53.2 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 18.2 19.9 18.3 0.6 52.6 55.0 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 18.1 19.9 18.7 0.7 54.4 55.3 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.4 12.3 17.0 0.6 57.4 55.2 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 18.6 20.1 17.2 0.7 56.8 56.3 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.7 15.3 0.7 56.4 56.4 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.7 19.5 18.2 0.6 52.1 54.9 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.3 15.8 0.9 60.2 57.3 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 18.2 19.9 17.7 0.8 57.1 56.4 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 18.2 19.7 16.5 0.8 58.6 56.9 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 18.2 19.7 16.8 0.8 56.9 56.7 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 17.4 19.6 16.6 0.8 59.6 57.1 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 18.2 19.9 16.1 0.8 58.2 56.6 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 18.3 20.4 17.5 0.9 57.9 56.8 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 17.2 19.8 17.2 0.5 58.4 54.2 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 18.8 20.6 16.5 0.8 58.4 56.5 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 17.6 19.4 18.0 0.6 53.0 55.0 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 19.5 19.6 16.0 0.9 59.5 57.0 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 17.9 19.7 18.5 0.6 53.4 55.3 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.6 14.9 13.7 1.0 60.1 57.3 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 18.4 20.1 18.3 0.7 56.5 55.7 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 18.1 20.0 18.2 0.7 54.0 55.5 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 18.1 20.1 18.5 0.7 55.7 56.0 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 17.9 19.4 17.4 0.9 57.4 56.5 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 18.0 19.8 17.2 0.6 56.8 55.5 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 17.6 20.3 15.8 0.8 60.3 56.5 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 17.9 19.7 17.8 0.7 55.8 55.5 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 17.3 20.2 17.1 0.6 57.9 54.9 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.5 14.8 15.0 1.0 59.2 57.4 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.9 18.5 0.6 53.1 54.9 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------