***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.7 -0.7 41.2 43.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 15.6 16.7 16.3 -0.8 39.6 42.4 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 15.5 17.4 16.7 -0.7 39.3 44.0 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 8.3 9.2 15.0 -1.0 40.0 42.3 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 15.2 17.3 15.3 -0.8 39.0 43.2 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 14.4 15.2 13.3 -0.9 40.6 43.2 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 15.5 16.5 16.3 -0.8 38.3 42.9 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.4 13.8 -0.8 42.5 44.0 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 14.6 16.4 15.7 -0.8 38.3 43.9 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 15.0 17.0 14.6 -0.8 40.8 44.1 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 15.0 17.0 14.9 -0.8 41.2 43.6 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 14.2 16.2 14.5 -0.8 42.7 43.6 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 15.2 17.1 14.0 -0.9 42.3 43.0 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 15.5 17.5 15.5 -0.7 40.3 43.9 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 15.9 16.3 15.1 -1.1 38.3 41.0 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 15.4 17.5 14.5 -0.9 42.0 43.0 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 15.2 16.1 16.0 -0.9 37.7 42.0 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 14.8 16.9 13.9 -0.7 42.6 44.4 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 15.4 16.7 16.5 -0.8 40.0 42.6 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 9.0 11.1 11.6 -0.8 43.7 44.0 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 15.0 16.8 16.4 -0.7 38.0 43.9 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 15.4 16.8 16.2 -0.8 40.3 41.9 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 15.4 16.9 16.5 -0.7 40.2 43.1 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 15.0 16.9 15.5 -0.7 41.2 44.4 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 15.2 17.0 15.3 -0.8 41.1 43.4 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 14.9 16.1 13.7 -0.9 40.7 43.1 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 15.1 17.1 16.0 -0.7 42.1 44.0 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 15.7 16.4 15.1 -1.0 39.4 41.7 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 9.5 11.6 12.9 -0.8 42.6 44.2 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 15.4 16.8 16.5 -0.7 40.0 43.0 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------