***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 -4.9 7.9 14.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 13.9 12.5 11.6 -4.8 8.1 13.8 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 13.7 12.8 11.8 -5.0 7.7 14.4 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 91 9 0 100 6.2 3.4 10.2 -5.1 7.2 13.4 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 13.9 12.1 10.4 -5.2 6.6 14.0 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 13.1 11.8 8.4 -5.3 7.5 14.5 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 13.9 12.5 11.4 -4.9 8.5 13.4 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 2.0 0.8 8.9 -5.3 7.5 14.1 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 13.8 11.9 10.8 -5.2 6.8 14.5 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 13.6 11.8 9.6 -5.3 7.1 14.6 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 14.2 11.8 10.0 -5.2 6.5 14.2 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 13.0 10.9 9.7 -5.2 7.4 13.9 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 14.1 12.3 9.1 -5.3 8.0 13.7 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 14.0 12.1 10.5 -5.3 6.8 14.8 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 14.6 13.4 10.6 -4.8 6.4 13.3 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 14.5 12.4 9.7 -5.3 6.6 13.8 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 13.3 12.1 11.3 -4.8 8.5 13.7 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 13.4 11.7 8.8 -5.5 7.3 14.8 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 13.6 12.2 11.7 -4.9 7.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 7.9 6.8 6.5 -5.5 7.2 13.5 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 13.8 12.7 11.4 -5.1 7.3 14.4 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 14.0 11.9 11.5 -4.8 7.7 14.1 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 13.8 12.5 11.7 -5.0 7.2 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 13.5 12.4 10.4 -5.3 7.2 14.9 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 92 8 0 100 14.0 12.6 10.3 -5.0 7.9 13.7 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 13.3 12.5 9.0 -5.1 9.7 13.6 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 14.2 12.9 10.9 -5.0 8.0 13.7 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 14.5 12.1 10.5 -5.0 5.7 13.4 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 7.9 6.1 7.7 -5.5 7.2 14.4 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 13.5 12.2 11.7 -4.9 8.0 13.7 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------