***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 91 9 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.5 -5.7 2.9 7.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 15.1 12.7 8.8 -6.3 2.4 5.3 16.2 16.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 15.2 13.3 9.3 -6.1 2.9 7.9 16.6 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 6.9 5.9 8.2 -4.6 7.6 14.0 8.1 9.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 15.2 14.0 8.8 -5.0 6.8 12.9 16.8 17.2 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 14.5 14.2 8.7 -2.6 22.4 27.6 15.2 15.9 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 14.7 13.2 8.9 -6.2 3.0 5.6 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 3.3 2.5 7.8 -4.1 11.8 17.9 3.3 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 15.3 13.2 9.4 -5.4 5.3 11.5 16.4 17.1 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 15.5 13.8 8.1 -5.0 7.9 14.3 16.1 17.3 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 15.1 14.2 9.0 -4.6 9.1 15.4 16.3 16.9 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 14.5 13.7 8.8 -3.8 13.7 19.0 15.2 16.5 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 15.6 15.1 9.4 -3.4 15.7 21.5 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 15.2 12.6 7.7 -6.9 2.4 7.0 16.3 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 14.6 13.8 10.1 -4.1 9.4 14.8 15.4 16.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 16.0 15.3 9.3 -3.9 12.1 19.0 16.6 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 14.4 12.5 8.2 -6.6 2.4 4.3 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 15.1 13.6 7.1 -5.4 7.5 13.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 14.8 12.4 8.8 -6.4 2.2 5.7 15.9 16.7 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 9.8 9.2 5.9 -4.0 12.5 18.0 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 15.1 13.5 9.6 -5.7 3.9 10.0 16.6 16.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 15.0 12.7 8.2 -6.8 2.1 4.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 15.1 12.4 8.8 -6.5 2.1 6.1 16.5 17.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 15.1 13.3 8.1 -6.2 4.3 9.8 16.5 17.0 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 14.9 13.4 8.7 -5.4 3.7 9.7 16.1 16.9 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 14.8 14.4 9.1 -2.6 19.0 25.9 15.0 16.3 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 15.1 13.0 9.1 -5.6 3.4 8.0 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 14.7 14.0 9.3 -4.1 10.7 16.9 15.6 17.4 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 9.8 8.7 6.5 -5.1 8.5 14.6 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 14.9 12.7 9.1 -6.1 2.5 6.1 16.0 16.9 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------