***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 -2.0 12.4 19.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 4.9 4.2 4.5 -2.1 7.6 15.6 5.4 6.0 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 7.2 6.7 4.7 -1.9 12.8 18.2 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 1.4 0.7 3.0 -1.7 14.0 19.7 1.7 2.8 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 3.9 3.4 3.2 -1.6 14.4 22.1 4.3 5.0 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.9 3.0 1.6 -1.1 23.0 29.2 3.2 3.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 5.2 4.4 4.5 -2.1 8.9 16.0 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -2.4 -2.6 1.7 -1.3 20.4 26.8 -2.0 -0.9 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 4.7 4.2 3.6 -1.5 14.0 23.0 5.4 5.8 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 4.8 4.6 2.2 -1.4 17.0 24.5 5.2 5.6 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 4.7 4.4 2.8 -1.4 16.3 23.4 4.9 5.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 3.0 2.9 2.4 -1.3 21.1 26.5 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 4.2 4.1 2.1 -1.2 23.0 27.8 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 5.5 4.8 3.3 -1.9 11.1 17.8 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 5.5 5.2 3.7 -1.6 13.3 21.1 5.9 6.1 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 5.1 5.0 2.5 -1.3 19.0 25.8 5.4 5.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 5.3 4.1 4.2 -2.3 5.5 14.1 5.9 6.3 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 2.8 2.4 1.5 -1.5 15.1 23.7 3.2 3.7 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 5.0 4.0 4.5 -2.1 9.3 16.1 5.4 5.8 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.3 20.1 28.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 4.9 4.4 4.4 -1.7 13.3 20.8 5.2 6.0 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 4.7 3.3 4.2 -2.3 5.4 13.7 5.1 5.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 4.8 4.3 4.4 -1.9 12.3 17.0 5.2 5.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 4.5 4.1 3.2 -1.7 12.4 20.1 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 5.1 4.7 3.7 -1.8 14.1 19.9 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 4.1 4.0 2.3 -1.1 25.3 29.8 4.2 4.9 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 5.1 4.4 4.3 -1.9 13.2 20.1 5.5 6.5 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 3.5 3.0 3.3 -1.5 14.7 22.1 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 1.8 1.5 0.9 -1.5 15.7 24.5 2.3 2.8 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 5.3 4.5 4.7 -2.1 10.8 16.4 5.6 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------