***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.4 0.2 52.6 51.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.4 8.4 8.3 0.2 53.5 51.8 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.7 8.1 0.1 53.5 51.4 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 2.6 4.4 6.2 0.0 48.5 49.8 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.3 6.2 0.1 49.4 50.0 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.3 4.3 0.1 48.4 51.9 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.7 8.2 0.1 51.4 51.9 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -1.0 0.8 4.6 0.1 47.5 51.4 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.8 7.4 6.7 0.1 50.8 50.6 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.0 5.3 0.1 47.6 50.6 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.4 6.4 5.7 0.0 45.5 49.6 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.9 5.3 0.1 45.0 50.7 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.0 5.9 4.7 0.1 47.2 50.6 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.6 8.1 6.7 0.1 51.3 51.2 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.6 6.7 -0.1 46.5 48.8 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 6.0 7.5 5.3 0.0 45.2 49.7 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.4 8.5 8.1 0.1 52.5 52.0 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.8 4.9 4.7 0.1 49.2 51.5 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.2 8.4 8.2 0.1 54.3 51.5 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 1.2 2.4 3.1 0.2 52.0 53.2 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.3 6.8 7.7 0.2 52.8 51.3 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.7 7.9 8.1 0.1 53.6 51.7 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.9 7.8 7.9 0.1 54.0 51.0 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.9 6.7 6.5 0.1 50.9 51.3 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.5 7.0 0.2 52.6 52.2 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.2 6.5 5.0 0.1 50.6 51.6 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.2 7.8 7.8 0.2 52.1 52.4 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.5 6.4 0.0 46.2 49.1 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 3.0 4.4 4.1 0.1 48.7 52.4 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.2 8.3 0.1 53.0 51.6 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------