***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 -1.5 27.8 35.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 4.1 4.3 5.9 -1.3 28.5 36.7 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 6.5 6.5 5.8 -1.4 27.0 34.5 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 1.0 0.8 3.9 -1.6 23.7 31.7 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.0 3.4 3.9 -1.5 25.5 33.1 4.0 4.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 2.7 2.8 2.0 -1.4 28.7 34.0 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.6 5.1 5.9 -1.4 28.4 37.1 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 2.3 -1.4 26.1 34.5 -2.4 -1.7 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 4.5 4.3 4.4 -1.4 26.1 34.9 4.4 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.6 4.2 3.0 -1.4 25.9 34.8 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 4.2 3.8 3.4 -1.5 24.3 32.6 4.3 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.5 2.6 3.0 -1.5 25.4 33.0 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 3.7 3.7 2.5 -1.5 26.4 32.9 4.6 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.0 4.7 4.5 -1.3 27.2 35.3 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 5.2 5.3 4.3 -1.7 22.5 30.6 5.7 6.5 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 4.6 4.8 3.0 -1.5 24.8 32.3 5.1 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.9 4.8 5.8 -1.3 28.7 37.7 5.0 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.5 2.3 2.3 -1.5 25.5 34.9 2.6 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.6 4.5 5.8 -1.3 29.3 36.1 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 -0.4 0.1 0.6 -1.4 27.3 36.4 0.2 1.1 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 4.2 4.1 5.3 -1.4 26.8 34.9 4.8 6.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.1 5.7 -1.3 29.5 36.9 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.4 5.6 -1.3 30.5 35.1 4.5 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.0 4.2 -1.4 25.6 34.5 4.2 5.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.6 -1.5 27.6 34.9 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.6 3.5 2.7 -1.5 27.4 33.0 3.9 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 4.6 4.3 5.4 -1.4 28.1 36.1 4.9 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.4 3.7 4.1 -1.6 23.9 31.4 3.9 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 0.9 1.4 1.7 -1.5 25.2 34.7 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.7 5.1 5.9 -1.4 27.8 36.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------