***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.4 -2.5 12.4 19.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 3.5 2.2 1.5 -3.3 6.3 12.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 6.0 4.9 2.2 -2.5 11.3 18.7 6.7 7.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 0.0 0.4 0.9 -1.5 26.9 30.1 0.8 1.5 2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.3 1.7 -1.1 34.1 35.7 2.9 4.7 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.9 0.8 0.3 60.8 56.8 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 3.7 2.3 1.6 -3.2 7.4 13.2 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.1 0.5 -0.2 47.3 46.8 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.5 4.2 2.2 -1.0 34.1 36.0 4.1 5.8 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.2 0.9 -0.7 38.6 40.5 4.4 5.4 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.5 1.6 -0.7 38.4 40.8 3.9 5.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.5 1.3 -0.2 50.5 48.6 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 56.3 53.5 2.7 4.5 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 3.9 3.5 1.1 -2.4 17.7 21.7 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.7 2.4 -1.1 37.2 35.8 4.4 5.5 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.5 1.5 -0.3 49.6 48.1 4.0 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 3.7 1.8 0.8 -3.8 2.4 9.1 5.1 5.6 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.2 0.1 -0.8 36.5 38.9 1.7 3.0 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 3.5 2.0 1.6 -3.1 7.3 13.9 4.4 5.3 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.3 -1.0 0.0 48.4 50.1 -0.3 0.3 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.4 2.7 2.6 -1.8 22.3 26.0 3.9 5.3 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 2.5 0.9 0.9 -3.9 2.6 8.9 4.2 5.1 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 3.2 2.0 1.8 -2.7 9.3 17.4 4.3 5.3 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.4 3.4 1.3 -1.8 22.3 27.2 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 3.3 2.6 1.9 -2.0 19.7 24.5 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.1 1.4 0.5 60.7 57.5 2.7 4.5 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.8 3.1 2.1 -2.2 18.6 22.8 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.6 1.8 -1.0 38.1 37.3 2.5 3.8 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 1.3 1.7 -0.4 -0.6 37.3 41.3 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 3.9 2.5 1.9 -3.0 7.6 14.5 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------